RiskFreeProfit Sports Arbitrage Trading Isn’t Really Risk Free

By | July 13, 2006

Edition #66 – 7/13/2006

I recently received an email from an internet marketing “Guru” who was recommending RiskFreeProfit’s sports arbitrage system. In fact, he claimed that he was USING the system and making money with it.

Since this guy is a fairly well-respected marketer, and since the opportunity did claim to be “risk free”, I decided to give it a try so I could let you know if it was for real.

What I found is that RiskFreeProfit (RFP) is not truly “risk free”, and I’m going to call this guru’s bluff, because I don’t think he’s really using it. I’m sure he’s a paying member (because you have to be a member to be an affiliate), but I don’t think he’s actively using the system.

It seems the reason he and others are so eager to promote it, is because RFP offers a 2×15 “forced” matrix, with recurring commission. In other words, it’s MLM (multi-level) and you can make a ton of money if you get a lot of people under you.

The cost of the program is $139/month, and your sponsor gets a good chunk of that.

First, what IS sports arbitrage trading?

Some of you will be surprised that I even TRIED it, because it sounds a lot like gambling. However, arbitrage by its definition is not gambling. In fact, its a common business situation that occurs in many different industries.

Here is an explanation from Wikipedia:

“In economics, arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of a state of imbalance between two or more markets: a combination of matching deals are struck that capitalize upon the imbalance, the profit being the difference between the market prices. When used by academics, an arbitrage is a transaction that involves no negative cash flow at any probabilistic or temporal state and a positive cash flow in at least one state. A person who engages in arbitrage is called an arbitrageur. The term is mainly applied to trading in financial instruments, such as bonds, stocks, derivatives and currencies. Entrepreneurs seek out arbitrage markets (i.e. insurance) to earn a profit. For example, consumers benefit greatly from entities who locate arbitrage markets within the insurance industry. Insurance arbitrage markets are an immensely profitable trend that Wall Street is eyeing. Those insurance firms in a non-arbitrage environment will likely have difficulty competing against an arbitrage business model.”

As you can see, “arbitrage” is simply an imbalance, and it’s a part of many business-related situations. Sports arbitrage trading applies this principle to sports betting. Here’s a quote from RFP’s site:

“Numerous arbitrage situations, also referred to as ‘sure bets’ ‘scalps’ and ‘risk free bets’, are created every day in sport’s-betting markets amongst the increasing number of bookmakers operating worldwide. These are terms attributed to a minor flaw in the betting system and YOU can take advantage of them! Earning from this flaw is perfectly legal and is tax free in most countries. The difference in the odds determines the amount of risk free profit to be made by the Sport’s Arbitrage Trader. “

So IN THEORY sports arbitrage does not involve risk, because you are guaranteed one of two outcomes, both of which involve a profit. In essence, it’s less of a gamble than the stock market, or any of a multitude of possible investments.

While this looks very attractive from 30,000 feet, I found some problems where the rubber meets the road.

The backbone of RFP’s system is their SureBetPro software, which finds “arbs” (arbitrage situations), and alerts you as they occur. For someone who is already a sports arbitrage trader, you can see how this could save a lot of time. Without such a tool, it would literally take all of your time to monitor dozens of online sportsbooks, let alone to do the math and figure out arbs the moment they occur.

The downside of this program started becoming evident before I even began using it. This is because you have to sign up with a lot of sportsbooks before you can begin the program. You want to have the largest pool possible, because then your chances of finding arbs will be greater.

As I signed up for a dozen or so sportsbooks, I immediately began to realize the potential for hassle. They all have their own terms and conditions, they’re located in various countries with various laws, they have different rules of operation, and they have different funding and payout processors. Many of them use some of the same processors, but it is by no means standard across the board.

So right from the get-go, I realized I’d have to be managing about 5 online money accounts in order to place bets and receive winnings from the sportsbooks. Each sportsbook also has their own terms about funding and payouts. Some of them charge a fee, depending on how you fund your account, others have minimum payout, etc. These are things you have to be aware of in arbitrage trading, because if you have a 2% profit margin, you don’t want it to be eaten up by a 3% processing fee. In other words, there’s a lot to keep track of…which is a pain.

I will say the SureBetPro software worked very well, in terms of what it was supposed to do, which is to find arbs. However, even with all the time saved, it’s still by no means “work free”. In fact, it’s rather time consuming.

You have to be online all the time and near your computer if you want to be alerted of the arbs as they occur. Most arbs last for only a short period of time, so you have to act quickly. The software does not place the bets for you. You have to log into each sportsbook and place the bet, as directed by the software.

RFP recommends that you don’t bet over $500, otherwise the sportsbooks may become suspicious, or they may limit your trading. This means that essentially your potential is limited. Let’s say I made 4% on a $500 trade (a nice arb); that’s $20 before fees. Even if I were lucky enough to get 5 of those in a day, that’s only $100, and I would have spent most of the day watching the software, logging into sportsbooks, verifying numbers, funding accounts, etc.

Besides that, there were very few lucrative arbs available during the few days that I tested it. The vast majority were in the 1-2% range, which hardly makes it worth the effort of placing the bets… not to mention your profit will be eaten by processing fees. Out of the good arbs, it seemed the majority were from a UK bookie which doesn’t allow members outside the UK, or from a Spanish-speaking bookie. Since I don’t live in the UK, I was out of luck there, and I wasn’t about to place a bet in a language I don’t understand. Can you imagine trying to resolve a dispute, LOL? It would be like, umm… yeah I would have read your terms of service if I spoke your language…

There were not enough profitable arbs available, and even if there were enough good ones, it still takes time. For me, it simply isn’t worth my time. EVEN IF it truly was risk free, it still wouldn’t be worth it.

For those of you who are investors, you may be thinking… okay, so hire someone else to spend their time doing it and split the profits with them. Again it’s not a bad idea–in theory. In fact you can join a sports arbitrage pool, where you buy shares and earn a percentage based on the earnings of the pool’s traders. However, as I’ll explain, there’s still risk involved… too much risk for me.

The biggest problem is that the bookies occasionally make mistakes, and when that happens, it shows up as an arb. As Wikipedia puts it,

“One problem with sports arbitrage is that bookmakers sometimes make mistakes and this can lead to an invocation of the ‘palpable error’ rule, which most bookmakers invoke when they have made a mistake by offering or posting incorrect odds.”

In other words, if THEY make a mistake it’s YOUR problem. In some cases you might get your money back, but in some cases you lose it. Even if you get your money back from the bookie who made the mistake, you’re out of luck if you lost the bet with the 2nd bookie of the arb (there are always 2 bookies in an arb trade).

Let’s say you’re placing $500 bets and making an average of 3% profit. If just one out of every 33 bets goes bad, you’d be losing money overall. In other words, it takes you 33 bets of $500 at 3% to earn $495 profit. If just one of those bets goes bad (resulting in a loss of the $500), it was all for nothing.

Here’s another problem. Keep in mind that two bets are required for a successful arb trade. You might place the first bet, but by the time you go to the 2nd bookie to place the 2nd bet, they may have changed their odds–or closed the betting altogether. If that happens, you could go to a 3rd bookie and place an opposing bet to minimize the risk of the bet you placed with bookie #1, but at this point you no longer have an arb, so it’s basically gambling.

Beyond that, I think there’s inherent risk involved when you’re dealing with dozens of off-shore bookies. You’re probably not protected by any laws, and in some cases it may be illegal for you to even participate. It’s not like these guys are FDIC insured. If one of them goes out of business (and it’s bound to happen eventually), and takes your money with them, you’re never going to see it again.

So here are the GOOD things I have to say about sports arbitrage:

– Using a software like SureBetPro saves time vs. doing it all manually
– It’s probably better than gambling

And here are the BAD things about it…

– Takes too much time
– Not enough good arbs to make it worthwhile
– Too many rules to keep track of
– Too many money accounts to deal with
– Risk of bookie mistakes
– Risk of getting locked out of the 2nd bet
– Risk of odds changing before you complete 2nd bet
– Risk of doing business with bookies

In conclusion, I’d say if you are addicted to gambling, then switching over to sports arbitrage might be a step in the right direction. But if you’re looking for an investment or business opportunity you should steer clear of it.

56 thoughts on “RiskFreeProfit Sports Arbitrage Trading Isn’t Really Risk Free

  1. ANDY

    As with anything, work hard and have compotent tools and you will profit. Like I do every day of the year. Love it.

  2. bodymoney

    my good friend eric ,i invest 1000 dolars in the pool plus the 1200 dolars to mantein the place as a menber.sadly they never give me any money..i think there yust fucking liers and thiefs

  3. Andrew B


  4. don rees

    i have just read edition66 and if you are still receiving replies i would like to add my 2 cents woth,i believe their are few “palpable errors” in the article,the implication was put forward that if you make 2% profit and pay % 3 as a withdrawal fee you will lose %1 this of course will happen if you do not have a bank and have to withdraw after each wager,with a reasonable bank you may be withdrawing the result of 20 wagers also it is not standard across the board that withdrawal fees apply with the better books they do not (but don’t withdraw every day) another statement was that one UK only accepted UK residents,not sure which one that would be,maybe coral/eurobet?? if so don’t worry about them you would not want them,mickey mouse books,i have been arbing for about 27 months and have made to date 2761 arb,in my the problems with arbing are
    1.it is not risk free and one of the reasons for this is that you will make a mistake and believe me this happens
    2.i run 2 computers and 4 monitors to get up say the 3 sites needed for a home /away /draw arb in a soccer game,now it does not matter how many screens you have open at some time you have to decide which bet you are going to make first,i go for the favourite first,to get set this may take 2/4 minutes,then i do the draw,another 2/4 minutes so by the time you get to the remaing team the outsider the odds may have changed so you have problems
    3.palpable errors,i have been through that many times so now i do not even consider anything showing over 5%,i am quite happy with 3%
    4. being limited by a sportsbook,in sports arbing the amount you can wager is directly governed by the odds,e.g if the odds are $3.00 you have to wager $333.00 (for a $1000.00 return if the odds are $1.87 you have to wager $537.00 etc etc now if you wager 333 and 537 etc and have a few wins the bookie will notice you and your funny wagers,mostly THEY DO NOT LIKE ARBERS (there are 7 exceptions to this (that i know of,real bookmakers,remember when a bookie “makes a book” (correctly but this does not always happen) he does not care who wins or loses so his book is one big arb,the you will be limited (i have been limited at 5 books at this time,one of them for 10 euros ) so you can forget them you can’t arb with 10 euros,of course you can try and roud off your wagers to the nearest $5.00 and i have been doing this for about the last 2 years,this may
    well upset the % return on the arb but even so the amount you are still left with maybe 95 / 165/ 195 etc etc, why would a gambler wager 185 and not 200? bookies are quite smart people and have access to enormous computer resourses,you will pop up eventually
    5. having said all of the above i still do arbs because i like it i spend a few hours a day doing it,you don’t get many things for free in this world so some effort is required,there is a better arbing method than back/back/back (as in a soccer game) with 3 different books and i have been using it for the past 2/3 months it is much much better,your wagers are not gOverned by the odds, you do not have to round the wager off (so if the arb return is 2% you will get exactly 2%,)the bookie will never wake up you an arber( there are a lot lot more 2% arbs than 5% )one day i may offer the software for sale
    thank you don rees

  5. Michael

    This scam has reached Australia in the last few years (I have found out now) unfortunately after lots of searching and investigating on the web I could not find one review that was bad (or good for that matter). These sales people are fantastic at their gig, I consider myself fairly intelligent but they got me for thousands and that was just paying for the software.

  6. Simon Montrose

    I have been contacted by my account manager (Jimmy Suther) at AIC International in relation to this thread – he asked me to make ‘fair’ comments and to start by describing my experiences with his own products and service and that of his company – AIC International and Continu8.

    For the record, I have had no problems earning profit from this continu8 platform/ trading system… and I have even spoken with several other happy customers before becoming involved myself.

    Reading some of the published content here is alarming. Clearly, the OP has an axe to grind or ulterior motives.

    AIC International will cold call you and offer a service using their software to carry out arbitrage trading.

    Untrue. It is not the same as arbitrage trading – so we already have misinformation seeping through here!

    You cannot check their software until you check the money and any live demo they do cannot fully test the software. You cannot carry out the main functions of the software when you are shown the test.

    So what you are saying is: the demonstration doesn’t test the software? That is odd because I believe the whole reason that you would ask for a demonstration is to TEST THE SOFTWARE? The functions in the demonstration are different to the production version? again, unfounded and false from my standpoint.

    After paying the money you quickly work out the serious problems with the software (Called Continu8). It does not work as they tell you.

    Untrue and unfounded. This company has been around for years, and I personally spoke with 4 or 5 previous customers before investing in the software. I thought it was a scam, because I was a newbie to trading. Once I began though, I found otherwise. This software easily and quickly identifies opportunities…. that is all I wanted it for!

    I would like to know more detail about ‘serious problems’?

    You say it does not work? Why? Software crashes? No connectivity? BSOD? They have a full team of support staff to assist (I even got helped at 6.30pm on a Friday night by Jimmy Suther my account manager)

    The information they send via the internet is mostly old data that cannot be used.

    Send data thats old? makes no sense…

    They will tell you there are no limits to the amounts you can wager. This is a blatant lie and very quickly you will find out you are very limited in what you can actually do.

    I don’t think you have understood the software parameters because I had this same issue at the start. The limit is apparently something imposed by the book makers – meaning, there is no limit to the amount you can wager in the software. If the bid is not accepted then this is something outside of the software’s functionality right? This was clearly explained to me…

    At least 50% of the OPPORTUNITIES they put on their website are not usable – the facts are wrong. This is fact and you cannot check this on the test they give you.

    Why not? So, just use a different window and verify the information is the same in a real-time environment? Perhaps this whole trading thing is too much for you if this is something that has been difficult for you to research!? the whole 50% thing is blatant guess-timation [or beratement].

    Then you contact the company and demand your money back. This is where the lies and deceit really starts. They will procrastinate and do nothing.

    They offered me a 10-day cooling off period, and money back guarantee. Cannot ask for much more than this? If someone ordered and received something from my company, and then ‘changed their mind’, then I would not be able to offer a refund [I am a Fish and Chipper – hahaha]. Advice, do your homework and read the details to ensure you are finding the product or service you need, and not just something that sounded good on paper.

    I know there are many other people who have been ripped off by this company. Add your reports to this site.

    Where are they? I know that every unhappy customer will tell more people than a happy customer. But I cannot help but feel bad for Jimmy and his crew for seeing this type of libel coming forward on the world wide web… and having a hard time trying to argue against a faceless and anonymous poster.

    Well here I am – Simon Montrose of South Melbourne in Victoria (just near Clarendon Street). I am happy to talk with anyone about the BENEFITS of AIC International or how Continu8 is not a scam!

    Now your turn…. to give O.P. ANY CREDIBILITY WHATSOEVER – please state your name and city… and provide a way to be contacted to expand on your ‘experiences’. Are you an ex customer or disgruntled staff member? Are you a competitor selling a competing contingency trading platform? Whatever the case may be, your anonymity does you no favors.

    Be very, very wary of this company.

    Be more wary of ‘anonymous’ hero filing reports on scam watch sites!

    Well I hope other people reading this site can keep an objective mindset when investigating any potential investment. Sometimes, you must take a risk to get a profit – and in the case of Continu8 software, they remove the risk altogether.
    I am here to set the record straight – but I do not generally discuss investments with others.

    email is just name @ yahoo.com.au if so inclined. I am guessing that this post won’t be listed…

    Simon Montrose of Melbourne.


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